MotoGP rider market: Thailand GP raises doubts about 2027 deals

– “The problem with signing so early is that you can regret it later,” said Joan Mir in early February, even before the start of the pre-season, when the rider market for the 2027 MotoGP season was already in full swing.

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The Honda rider was unable to finish the first race of the season in Buriram due to a problem with the rear tire, but still noted that Honda has done its homework and that staying under the direction of the Tokyo factory could be a very good option for the future.

Mir is certainly not the only one who has drawn conclusions after this first race weekend – a Grand Prix where Aprilia confirmed they have a very competitive bike and can hold their own against the previous dominator Ducati, at least in certain scenarios.

KTM can also be a more winning bike in the hands of Pedro Acosta than one might have thought. Meanwhile, the Japanese seem to be moving in opposite directions: Honda upwards, Yamaha downwards.

All of this has certainly influenced the thoughts of those whose medium-term future was already settled before the first weekend provided new insights.

Which riders will move where in 2027

So far, only Aprilia has officially confirmed the contract extension of Marco Bezzecchi until 2027 and 2028. A multi-year deal that was absolutely expected. For the Italian, there was no doubt that staying in Noale is the best option, and the bike’s performance this weekend – including pole position and victory – confirms that he made the right decision.

Furthermore, none of the other top riders have officially announced their future from 2027 onwards. However, it is considered certain that Marc Marquez will extend with Ducati for two years and Francesco Bagnaia has decided to move to Aprilia.

Pedro Acosta is set to replace him as a factory rider at Ducati, while Jorge Martin will ride for Yamaha and Fabio Quartararo goes to Honda. Additionally, Maverick Vinales will move up to the official KTM team and form a duo there with Alex Marquez.

Photo gallery: The contract terms of the current MotoGP riders

Even though a whole season lies ahead of us and new technical regulations will come into force in 2027 that could shake up the balance of power, the weekend in Thailand could provide clues as to who was right with their future decisions and who might now have an uneasy feeling.

Concern for Marc Marquez, relief for Bagnaia

Buriram is a special track – because of its hard braking zones and extreme heat. That’s why Michelin opted for a more resistant tire structure, the famous hard carcass, which Aprilia handles better than the competition. For Marc Marquez, a tire burst after a hit on the rim cost him a possible podium that he himself considered realistic.

However, the impressions of the weekend with the Ducati bikes were not good overall, nor was the body language of the protagonists. For the first time in years, sporting director Gigi Dall’Igna was seen with a disoriented look.

Marquez also looked concerned in the pit. And the other Ducati riders Alex Marquez, Fabio Di Giannantonio and especially Bagnaia also had no answers.

“It’s clear that Ducati has taken a step back and Aprilia one forward,” Bagnaia described the current balance of power. The fact that he himself will move to Noale next year should certainly provide some relief.

This doesn’t necessarily apply to Marquez. The Spaniard is not giving any details about his physical condition, but it is obvious that he is still in a recovery phase and that the bike Ducati provided him in Thailand did not allow him to fight with Bezzecchi for the lead.

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He also struggled against Acosta. Is the KTM rider worried? Hardly. The Spaniard has shown that he can be fast with almost any bike – and if the 2027 Ducati is competitive, he will get everything out of it.

Is Marquez worried? Possible. If he is physically at one hundred percent in 2027, but that is not enough to show his best form, it could be difficult. In front of him, the best Aprilia might be ridden by Bezzecchi, and next to him a hungry shark like Acosta. Then the two-year contract could feel quite long – especially for someone who has just turned 33.

Bagnaia, on the other hand, is certainly not worried; in early February he was still on the verge of joining Yamaha, but then made a sudden U-turn and will now move directly to the Aprilia pit, where he is expected with open arms.

Quartararo looks to Honda, Alex Marquez to KTM

Quartararo, along with his Yamaha brand colleagues, was probably the most frustrated rider of the Thailand weekend. But for the 2021 world champion, the development at Honda and the obviously good work of HRC is a huge relief, because his early decision to switch was not without risk.

For him, this season will probably feel endless, but at least he knows that a bike is waiting for him that can aim for success again in his hands.

Another who kept a close eye on the competition in Buriram was Alex Marquez. He has signed a contract to ride for KTM in 2027 and suffered significantly more than expected at the opener with the Gresini Ducati GP26.

At the same Grand Prix last year, the reigning runner-up left the track with two podium finishes, 29 points and in second place in the overall standings. This Sunday, he ended the weekend with a crash, no points and accordingly far back in the championship table.

Marquez certainly noticed Acosta’s strong race on the RC16 with some relief, even if the problems of the other KTM riders – especially Vinales – might cause some unrest for the rider from Cervera.

Alongside Marquez, the factory team of the Austrian manufacturer will most likely be completed by Vinales next year, who experienced a true martyrdom in Thailand. And it remains to be seen how he emerges from it.

Is Martin leaving the best bike again?

A year and a half ago, Ducati closed the door to the factory team for Jorge Martin in order to sign Marc Marquez. However, the Madrilenian had the opportunity to stay at Pramac with the same bike as Marquez. Martin declined and moved to Aprilia – at a time when that still meant a clear step backwards. That’s why Martin wanted to leave there again just a few months later.

This year, even before the team presentation and before he had even gotten on the bike, Martin already committed to Yamaha for 2027. Given what was seen in Buriram, this step again looks like a sporting step backwards, as the Aprilia is currently significantly stronger than the M1.

We will probably never know if Aprilia actually offered the Spaniard a contract extension, as the Italian manufacturer claims. But after the weekend in Thailand, the 2024 champion will certainly have doubts about whether the move to Yamaha is really the best for his career.

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