McLaren warns of rain in Canada: advantage for Ferrari and Red Bull

– Ahead of the potentially rainy Canadian Grand Prix, an unexpected advantage is emerging for Ferrari and Red Bull. McLaren team principal Andrea Stella believes that the two rivals could be better prepared for difficult conditions in Montreal thanks to earlier Pirelli rain tire tests.

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The background: Pirelli regularly conducts development runs with individual teams during the current Formula 1 season to evaluate new tire compounds and constructions. Although no new car upgrades are allowed to be tested during these runs, such sessions provide valuable insights—especially under wet conditions, which have so far rarely occurred in regular race operations.

Exactly this could be crucial this weekend at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Weather forecasts predict low temperatures of only twelve degrees Celsius and rain for Sunday. On the already extremely smooth asphalt of Ile Notre-Dame, this could lead to a massive grip problem.

Pirelli tests could become a key factor

Several teams have already gained experience with the current cars on wet tracks in recent months. For Red Bull, Isack Hadjar tested together with Racing Bulls drivers Arvid Lindblad and Liam Lawson after the Japanese GP in Suzuka.

Ferrari deployed Lewis Hamilton in April at Fiorano, while Alpine was recently active with Pierre Gasly in Magny-Cours. McLaren and Mercedes, on the other hand, have so far been unable to gather comparable experience—and this is exactly where Stella sees a possible disadvantage.

“I do think that is an advantage,” explains the Italian. “There are still uncertainties regarding the behavior of the power unit. Even after several races, we are still talking about the optimal use of the powertrain.”

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Especially in the rain, many parameters would change much more significantly than can be predicted in simulations. “Under wet conditions, things deviate even more from what you expect or can simulate,” Stella continues. “The power unit therefore remains a factor with high variability. If you have already tested with it, you might simply know a little more.”

Besides the engine issue, Stella sees the tires as the biggest unknown. “From a tire perspective, it is completely unclear whether the tires will operate within their optimal working window or slightly outside of it,” he explains. “I am specifically talking about the temperature window.”

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Montreal presents special challenges for teams

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve has been considered one of the most difficult tracks for years to get tires up to temperature. The asphalt is among the smoothest of the entire season, and there are no long high-speed sections that would normally help to generate energy in the tires.

“This track practically has no fast corners,” explains Stella. “That makes it extremely difficult to build up temperature. The surface is incredibly smooth—one of the smoothest in the calendar.”

Another uncertainty factor comes into play: The current rain tires have hardly been tested under real race conditions in 2026 so far. “We have had practically no wet sessions at race weekends,” says Stella. “Even Pirelli has therefore not really been able to calibrate exactly where the tire compounds currently stand.”

For the engineers, this means an enormous number of unknown variables. “There are so many things we still have to discover,” says the McLaren team principal. “And that is exactly why those who have already tested have a slight advantage.”

Gasly expects chaotic race

Alpine driver Pierre Gasly also believes that conditions in Montreal could be extremely difficult. The Frenchman was able to gain experience on a wet track himself during the recent Pirelli tests in Magny-Cours. “Even in dry conditions, it is hard to warm up the tires on this track,” explains Gasly. “In the rain, it will be extremely difficult.”

According to the Frenchman, especially the combination of low temperatures, little grip, and smooth asphalt could lead to an unpredictable race. “Based on my experience, it will be a pretty eventful race,” Gasly predicts.

This could make the Canadian GP one of the biggest challenges of the season not only strategically but also in terms of driving. Especially in the first laps, it will be crucial who gets their tires into the working window fastest—and this is exactly where the previous Pirelli test runs could ultimately make the difference.

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