– Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli went into the 2026 Formula 1 summer break with a lead of 50 points over his pursuers. No one in the history of the premier class has ever lost such a large lead at mid-season.
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Nevertheless, Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff continues to refuse to call Antonelli the big world championship favorite for the second half of the year. “It is still too early to say that,” the Austrian brakes and explains: “I am superstitious.”
“Even though the lead is 50 points, there are still so many races left that two retirements can massively change the situation. And in terms of reliability, we have not been exactly outstanding so far,” reminds the Mercedes team principal.
In fact, Antonelli has won six races so far this year but also has two zero scores on his account due to technical problems in Barcelona and Silverstone. Teammate George Russell also did not see the checkered flag in Montreal after a failure.
“That is why we simply have to continue to make the most of every single day from Friday to Sunday, and hopefully that will be enough in the end,” says Wolff. And Antonelli himself predicts to Sky that it could still be “very close.”
Who still has realistic world championship chances?
He emphasizes: “McLaren has made a huge leap forward. Ferrari was fast this weekend [in Hungary], and Max [Verstappen] should never be written off. So it will be a really tough fight,” believes the Italian.
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The question, however, is who can still intervene in the world championship fight in the second half of the season. Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton currently has a 50-point deficit as Antonelli’s closest pursuer, Mercedes teammate Russell in third place already 59 points behind.
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Charles Leclerc, as fourth in the world championship with already 81 points behind, probably only has outsider chances at most, and Lando Norris and Max Verstappen are already 91 and even 110 points behind, respectively.
Although Verstappen showed in 2025 that he should always be considered in the world championship fight in principle, realistically Red Bull would need further (major) mistakes from Mercedes to get back into the title fight this year.
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Nevertheless, Antonelli emphasizes that Mercedes must also “simply keep raising the bar and come back stronger in the second half of the season. Because it will be a very tough fight.”
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