– An interesting pattern has emerged in the Formula 1 driver market: activity changes every other year. In 2023, for example, six teams changed their line-ups, partly triggered by the Oscar Piastri fiasco – before an unchanged starting field caused a premiere in the following season.
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For 2025, under the ground-effect rules, major changes were again on the agenda last season. It developed into one of the craziest driver markets of the modern era, heralded by Lewis Hamilton’s spectacular move to Ferrari.
The Italian racing team was one of eight teams that reshuffled their driver duos, while the field prepared for the 2026 rule change aiming for stability. This led to only two teams this year – both owned by Red Bull – making changes, while Cadillac entered the championship anew.
Following the emerging pattern, stability this year has created an interesting starting point for 2027: several teams are active on the market again after gaining a season of experience with the new rules at the end of the year and knowing where everyone stands in this era.
More than half of the current Formula 1 drivers have contracts expiring at the end of 2026, including the Haas duo Oliver Bearman and Esteban Ocon. The US team is therefore likely to play a central role in the upcoming “Silly Season”.
Why Ocon is currently under pressure
“Around now, so May, June, July,” Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu answers when asked when Haas will make a decision for 2027. He emphasizes: “I think everyone is currently looking at drivers for next year. Not just us.”
Understandably, Haas’s interest is focused on Ocon, who vehemently denied the “bullshit” rumors before the Canadian GP last weekend that he faced an early exit from his team.
Even if there is no truth to the claims, there is no question that his cockpit for 2027 is at risk after he has fallen significantly short of expectations since his move to Haas in 2025.
Photo gallery: Contract durations of current Formula 1 drivers
Originally, his signing was considered a major coup for Haas: over 100 Grand Prix starts, one win, and four podiums. But his performances have been frustratingly inconsistent, and last year he attributed some of his problems to difficulties with the VF-25’s brakes.
However, this sounds unconvincing when looking at his teammate: Bearman finished three points ahead of Ocon in his debut season. This gap has grown further in 2026, so after his move from Alpine, Ocon is simply the second driver rather than the hoped-for benchmark for Bearman.
Unless Ferrari junior Bearman, who already made a one-off start for the Scuderia in his 2024 F1 debut, is surprisingly recalled, the 21-year-old will likely stay – and the only question is who will drive alongside him in 2027.
Why Komatsu does not give a status update
When Komatsu is further asked if he “would keep both drivers if he had to decide today,” he dodged and focused his answer only on his Grand Prix winner.
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“I think such a question only causes trouble,” Komatsu says and explains: “Then people take my words and say: ‘Ayao said if he had to decide now, he would continue with Esteban or not continue.’ That is completely taken out of context, so I do not answer the question.”
However, the race in Canada on Sunday did not help Ocon’s position. The 29-year-old again finished outside the points in 14th place, while Bearman scored a point in 10th – helped by George Russell’s retirement and problems at McLaren.
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After the first five races of 2026, Ocon has only scored one point, 17 less than Bearman, who has practically led the significantly improved Haas single-handedly to seventh place in the constructors’ standings.
“It was definitely hard work,” Ocon himself says after the Canada weekend and explains: “We clearly had a problem with the car in this race. There was no lap where I did not lock up the front tires.”
“Turn 10 was particularly critical, but I also slid out twice in turn 8 during the race. We only installed the update in qualifying and ran just two laps with it, so it was difficult to see if everything worked. But there was clearly a problem with the car in the race,” Ocon adds.
Who could replace Ocon in 2027?
How long he can continue to blame the car remains an exciting question, especially since Bearman is quite good at admitting his own mistakes and moving on. However, it is unclear who could replace Ocon.
Haas could take the same path as with Bearman and sign a Ferrari junior. Currently, for example, the reigning Formula 3 champion Rafael Camara, who now races in Formula 2, would be an option. However, there are reservations in the field about bringing drivers directly from junior categories because the cars differ significantly.
Reserve driver Jack Doohan would also be an option, especially since he brings sponsorship money. But his difficulties at Alpine are still present, and the question is whether Haas has moved beyond the point of signing so-called “pay drivers.”
Although the team has one of the smallest budgets in the field, competitiveness has improved significantly this year. And Komatsu, a former engineer who has worked with world champions like Fernando Alonso, will want two equally strong drivers who can push the team forward together.
Whether Ocon is the right man for that remains to be seen. But time seems to be running out for the Formula 1 veteran.
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