How big is the Mercedes lead really?
After George Russell and Kimi Antonelli already took the first two places in Melbourne, Mercedes celebrated another double success at the second race of the season in Shanghai. But how far ahead is Mercedes really?
The fact is that Ferrari was able to keep up with the Silver Arrows at the start of both races. But this fact distorts the true picture somewhat. “Overall, they were faster than us,” Frederic Vasseur clarified to Sky after the Chinese GP.
“Depending on the session, the gap was always three, four, or five tenths,” said Vasseur. One could only keep up with Mercedes if the “overtake mode” was available. In addition, the tires had to be used more heavily.
This makes the fight look more open in parts than it really is. “When they have clear air, we are a few tenths slower than them,” Vasseur clarifies, emphasizing that Mercedes has “a clear advantage” especially on the straights.
Basically, Ferrari must improve in all areas to beat Mercedes, according to the team principal.
Read more No rule changes before Japan: Toto Wolff warns of “political intrigue”
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Ferrari vs. Mercedes: Close fight or just an illusion?
This fits well with our big topic today: In the strategy video after the Chinese Grand Prix, data expert Kevin Hermann takes a close look at the numbers behind the race.
How close is Ferrari really to Mercedes? The starts look strong, the duels close – but do the data really say the same thing? A detailed analysis of the decisive factors from Shanghai.
Ferrari vs. Mercedes: Close fight or just an illusion?
Piastri: McLaren currently in “no man’s land”
The Australian does not believe that McLaren can be right at the front again at the upcoming race in Japan. “Hopefully we can catch up a bit, but I would be surprised if we could close the gap completely,” said Piastri.
“I think this weekend [in China] was quite representative of our situation so far, where we have been in a kind of no man’s land as the third fastest team,” he explains.
The Mercedes factory team was significantly too fast for McLaren, and in qualifying, they also landed behind both Ferraris. In the race, it probably wouldn’t have looked much different.
Therefore, according to Piastri, McLaren will still need some time to close the gap to the front.
Villeneuve: At some point it will get boring
Many Formula 1 fans like the “new” premier class this year. Expert Jacques Villeneuve also found the first races entertaining – but warns that the many overtaking maneuvers could eventually become boring.
“You still see the better [drivers] right at the front. It was fun because it’s new and we don’t know what to expect. But if we have ten races that all go exactly the same way, it will eventually get boring,” he explains to Sky.
Meaning: If there are permanent lead changes in the first laps of the next races as well, the effect can quickly wear off. “At the moment it’s fun,” says the 1997 world champion.
But one has to wait and see how the situation develops in the coming months.
Hadjar: Long break a “disadvantage” for Red Bull
Due to the cancellation of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, there will be no Grand Prix in the whole of April. One might think that this is an advantage for teams like Red Bull that need to catch up.
According to Isack Hadjar, however, the exact opposite is the case, as he explains: “The more races we drive, the more we understand.” And there is still a lot to learn, especially about the new engine.
“In this respect, it is definitely a small disadvantage for us,” says Hadjar. Ferrari team principal Frederic Vasseur reveals: “I think everyone was actually supposed to bring a big upgrade to Bahrain.”
The cancellation now means “that this will be postponed to Miami,” says the Ferrari team principal. The long April break is therefore messing things up for some teams.
Hamilton: I’m close to the first victory now
The record world champion took his first podium with Ferrari yesterday. Will the first victory follow soon? “I definitely feel like it’s getting closer than ever. Last year it couldn’t have been further away,” Hamilton emphasizes.
Nevertheless, he also clarifies that Mercedes currently still has a “four or five tenth lead” in the race. “That’s a huge leap forward, both in terms of downforce and efficiency as well as performance,” Hamilton explains.
But at least Ferrari has established itself as the second force behind Mercedes so far this year. Meaning: If the Silver Arrows stumble at some point, Hamilton’s hour could strike.
The grades are in!
Of course, our popular grading is back again this year. In our photo gallery, you can see how our expert Marc Surer and we as the editorial team rated the drivers in China.
This much can be revealed: We didn’t agree on many drivers this time…
Photo gallery: Shanghai: The driver ratings from Marc Surer and the editorial team
Wolff: We must not get carried away now
For Toto Wolff, Kimi Antonelli’s victory yesterday was a certain satisfaction. Regarding the signing of the Italian as Hamilton’s successor at Mercedes, he says: “There were many voices inside and outside the sport saying: ‘That was a mistake.'”`
“So it’s nice to get a little revenge. But of course, it’s only one race win,” Wolff also knows and explains: “Today things are going great. In two weeks we’ll be in Japan, and if he puts the car in the wall there, people will say he’s too young.”
“So I think we should just stay grounded,” says the Mercedes team principal.
Aston Martin: Gap does not come from vibrations
Fernando Alonso had to retire yesterday because the vibrations in the car became too strong. However, these have nothing to do with Aston Martin’s large performance gap, Mike Krack emphasizes.
“I think the vibrations have mainly affected our reliability so far. We obviously have to make compromises in some areas, but that doesn’t cost us seconds,” he clarifies.
“You might be a bit more conservative with certain settings, but that doesn’t go hand in hand with an enormous loss of performance,” says Krack.
Meaning: Even without the vibrations, Aston Martin would currently be somewhere at the back of the field. There are other reasons for that.
Read more BoP Analysis 12h Sebring 2026: Porsche pays a high price for Daytona hat-trick
Wolff expects “political knives”
So back to the current Mercedes lead. “We have a good car that is capable of winning at this point,” says Toto Wolff, who suspects that other teams could try to stop his team on a political level.
“Let’s see what political knives will be pulled out in the coming weeks and months,” says the team principal with a smile, “but at the moment it’s a car that is capable of winning.”
So let’s wait and see if there will actually be attempts in the coming months to change the rules and thus slow down Mercedes a bit. It would certainly be anything but unusual in Formula 1…
Schumacher: Verstappen comments don’t help
Ralf Schumacher is of the opinion that Max Verstappen should hold back a bit with critical comments in the future. Because the four-time world champion has “a great responsibility” towards Red Bull, he emphasizes.
“He has shown that he is actually the fastest racing driver in Formula 1,” says the expert. But now he also has to show that he is capable of “bringing a team that is in trouble forward.”
“And there I recommend he stop with these superfluous comments, comparisons with Super Mario and so on,” Schumacher emphasizes, explaining: “I don’t think that gets anyone anywhere.”
Even after the Chinese race, Verstappen criticized the current Formula 1 regulations again.
